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Feedback on Trading System
I built a forex trading strategy recently for a friend, and wanted to share it / get some feedback on it, as most of the systems I build trade stocks and are more fundamental/macro based! The system was inspired by this forexfactory post: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=343533 but I've made a few changes. The Filter: I didn't like the proposed TMA slope indicator as the calculation and cutoff values seemed too arbitrary to me, so I take the 5 bar ROC of an EMA and smooth it. I divide this value by its standard deviation to scale it for higher timeframe analysis. I take the value of this adjustedSlope at the 4H, 1D, 1W timeframes, and sumproduct them with weights of 40%, 30%, 30% to give a little more strength to recent movements. I call this the overallSlope (for future reference). I describe the the market regime under these rules: (overallSlope > overallSlope and overallSlope > 0) = bullish (overallSlope < overallSlope and overallSlope < 0) = bearish (overallSlope > overallSlope and overallSlope < 0) = neutral (overallSlope < overallSlope and overallSlope > 0) = neutral Just like the system from ForexFactory, only long trades can be taken if its bullish, only short trades can be taken if its bearish, and either trade can be taken if its neutral. The Setup: I believe this portion is identical to the original stated system. Take the 50 bar Triangular Moving Average on the 4H timeframe, where the UpperBand is TMA + (2.5 * H4ATR) and the LowerBand is TMA - (2.5 * H4ATR). If the market regime is bullish/neutral and the price has traded below the Lower Band then we're setting up for a buy and vice versa with a bearish/neutral market regime and price trading above the Upper Band. I'm considering switching this to Median Absolute Deviation Bands as I like using the modified Z Score but I'm unsure of applying it directly to a price series instead of indirectly through an indicator or factor, I assume the median isn't very effective due to the actual series drifting, where as its (more) static when applied to Earnings Yield or something. The Trigger: For the trigger I'm on the 1H TimeFrame using the MACD histogram crossing 0, but the MACD is based on the Jurik Moving Average instead of the standard. A couple years ago when I first started getting into programming and playing forex, the JMA was something I stumbled on and wrote up and I really like it, it's very effective and smoothing a series, allowing the use of shorter lookback values without the MA being too "jittery". Exits: On the losing side, at open a stop loss is placed at (2 * H4ATR) below(above) the low(high) if we're going Long(Short). I'm currently split between two exits on the profit side. Right now my current exit criteria for a hypothetical long position is a bearish MACD Histogram crossover while we are above the TMA (the "midline"). The other strategy I'm considering is half off at the midline and the other half off at the Upper Band, but I think this isn't great because it can reverse and hit the stop effectively nulling the trade. Risk Management: For the risk management of the system I'm using position sizes standardized to risk 3% of the account on each trade by calculating how far away the stop is, and scaling the # of units until $risk = AccVal * .03. Additional Comments: As of right now I only have it fully coded on TradingView and I've made sure to use open prices for everything to avoid? (not sure if this completely handles this issue, please let me know) lookahead bias and I'm in the process of translating my code into my backtesting system but a lot of what I've built is equity related so I have some work to do to get it running right for forex. In TradingView I have it plot the Entry, Stop, and two targets, and the background shifts based on if it's long/short/flat. https://imgur.com/a/A1UQi04 I look forward to any thoughts or comments y'all may have, thanks for reading!
How certain is a trader when they enter a market to take 1 pip profit. He requests that you open a small live account on oanda and place $50. Adjust the custom lots to 0.25cents per pip and enter when you believe you can be certain to make 1 pip take profit. If you dont, you cant close out but leave it as it is until the price finally makes you 1 pip or takes all of your $50. What you will learn from this exercise is some of the inner traits you hold as a trader. It will be an enlightment. TheRealThing is asking more than a traders' capacity to be able to make 1 pip. It is part of traders self-awakening.
Quoting Leonlorenzo I gather your In your 40's Dopey. Do you think you would have been able to work it all out when you were In your early 20's? Im considering that I need to grow up a little more, take some time out, put alot more effort In to conventional avenues to further myself.
That's a really tough question to answer. I'm 51 now and when I was in my 20's I would never even have considered doing this. In your 20's you have more energy and time, yet less maturity and humility. Also, most people don't really know what they want when they're in their 20's, which is not a bad thing at all. It's important to have a wide variety of interests, how else can you know what you want until you've looked at many things? Intellectually, trading is not very difficult, it just isn't. However, the proper application is extremely hard and anyone interested in it should know all the reasons why. I can tell you that the key for me was developing myself as a person. It almost sounds cliche but it's true (all cliches are based on a truth). I spend more time every day working on myself than I do in trading, yet my trading is better now than ever. I didn't believe it when I first read about it, as most don't. But there are many who try trading and don't succeed and it's not because they can't pass a test on support and resistance line drawing, or how to calculate a 2.75% position size on a $10,000 account. Plain and simple, they lose because they fuck up mentally. Let me give you some advice on other people. I was 26 when I hitchhiked through Europe for the first time, from London down to the Greek Islands in back in one summer. It was an amazing time for me and I vowed to myself to spend the rest of my life seeing the world. Everyone in my life, except my mother, told me to get serious and settle down, get a steady job, have a family and be average just like them. This includes two ex-wives. Some how I knew when I was still in my teens that you can't depend on others to map out your life for you and that what they pass off to you as advice that is supposedly in your best interest is the farthest thing from the truth. As I've stated before, I've met plenty of people who have believed they knew better than me what I should or should not do with my life. As a rule, most are average people who live average lives. They are all still living average lives (which in itself is just fine because it's like street sweepers, if there isn't people who voluntarily do stuff like that, then I might end up being forced to do it, so I do appreciate average people and the role they play in the world). Now it's 25 years later and I've spent the past 20 years travelling the world. I've been to just about every great and majestic place you've ever seen on tv or in a book. I've done so many things that most people think about their whole life and keep on saying, "I'll do that when I'm retired." I spend my summers (you gotta love teaching in universities...which I specifically chose to do because of the time off...you try going through grad school with that in mind...it's easy) in 3 or more countries. I've spent 13 months in the last 10 years hanging out in Thailand simply because I love the place. I go home on occasion and I see everyone living their average lives and they don't really want to talk about what I do, where I've been, what I've seen and done to any degree. Mainly because it reminds them that a. they were wrong about me and b. that they're living terminally average, boring lives. So I don't go home much anymore. Meanwhile, I work with over 150 westerners who are just like me in that they chose to not be average and stay put because others told them that it's the best thing for them. So I've got plenty of company, including my third wife who loves our life. And what really burns all their asses is that my wife and I both teach here and our combined salary with all benefits is over 120k per year...and we work 8 months per year. Sorry for the long reply, but the best advice I can give anyone in their 20's is to follow any dream you have. Understand why people give you the advice they do, it's mainly to serve their interests, not yours. My mother was the only person who truly wanted me to have what I wanted. She supported me 100% in everything I did, no matter what it was. I was lucky to have had her support and her love. After 18 years, I still miss her terribly. Surround yourself with others that are also following their dreams. Don't let anyone tell you what your limitations are or should be. Don't let anyone define you in any shape or form. It doesn't matter what you do with your life, as long as it's what you want to do. It's your life, live it accordingly. Credits: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2768964#post2768964
No TA or FA will help. But at least with FA or news squawk you know the cause of the moves. Chartist will only scratch his head. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8642043#post8642043 Maybe more background on me. I am trading since 2008 and was mainly TA as all retail beginners. Then I was noticing these large moves which then coincidentally were connected with Forex Factory calendar surprises. I started research on the events, found traders who successfully trade in this way and never looked back. Now I am writing this to others still in only TA stage. I use TA still, but only for setting up exits and entries.
Just came across a thread on the Forex Factory forums titled "Why you suck at trading". It is a very recent thread, having only been started in the last 2 days. I have no association with the OP and cannot vouch for his authenticity. The presentation from OP can be somewhat crass, but it certainly contains a lot of useful information for the uninformed. Commit some time to having a read through, for interests sake if nothing else. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=369985
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