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If only euro could. Forecast for EURUSD for 20.10.2020

If only euro could. Forecast for EURUSD for 20.10.2020
Despite the second wave of COVID-19 and the rumors of the ECB’s monetary stimulus expansion, the single European currency isn’t giving up. Let’s talk about what is supporting the euro, and make a trading plan for EURUSD.

Weekly fundamental forecast for euro

In spite of, not thanks to.
EURUSD’s yesterday rise could seem strange amid the US stock indexes’ fall and the second pandemic wave in Europe. However, we need simply to understand, what investment idea is prevailing in the market these days. The euro’s descending move is seen as a mere correction. Most investors are sure that Joe Biden’s victory at the elections on 3 November will weaken the dollar, whereas the vaccine will give a boost to the whole global economy. In those circumstances, any hint at the pair’s growth appears to a be a reason for buying it. No one wants to miss the train that will go to the north sooner or later.
Formally, the reasons of EURUSD’s rally were Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s statement that a fiscal stimulus deal is still likely to be made before the election, and the Fed’s dovish comments.
If the Democrats and the Republicans agree on economic help, S&P 500’s rally may continue, the global risk appetite will improve, and the greenback’s position will worsen. Still, the market didn’t believe Pelosi: a deal would raise Trump’s rating. What do the Democrats need that for? Also, Pelosi’s statement sounded too ultimatum-like: if not on Tuesday, then never!
Fed’s Vice Chair Richard Clarida asserts that GDP’s pullback is connected in part with the Central bank’s and the Congress’ relief packages. He thinks that both the lawmakers and the Fed will need to provide additional support for GDP to continue recovering. Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostic believes that some areas of the US economy hardly ever recovered, or didn’t recover at all.
If the Fed is planning to provide an extra stimulus and GDP isn’t recovering, how can we speak about any divergence between monetary policy and economic growth, selling EURUSD in the short term?
During the fortnight ended on 13 October, hedge funds cut euro longs at the fastest pace over the last 8 months.

EURUSD and speculative positions in euro


https://preview.redd.it/sm3q5n39d8u51.jpg?width=562&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2014d5aa38de78e681c38b6099aa11e83177c0d5
Source: Bloomberg.
Still, speculative positions aren’t likely to become net shorts: the negative US assets yield and Joe Biden’s probable victory don’t allow investors to buy out dollars.
The Chinese yuan’s consolation may suggest the reasons of EURUSD’s rise to the top of figure 17. In spite of the People’s bank’s intention to put a spoke into USDCNH bears’ plans, the pair returned to the area of its 18-month lows and is ready to update them. That will draw it to the lowest value since July 2018. Investors overestimated the negative impact of China’s GDP’s moderate growth in Q3, and paid attention to strong statistics on industrial production and retail sales.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

I mentioned the yuan’s impact on the euro rate many times. Nevertheless, the eurozone’s domestic problems will prevent EURUSD from continuing the rally. The market is concerned about October’s data on European PMI. Most likely, the traders will be selling the euro at $1.178, $1.181 and $1.185 in the nearest time.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/if-only-euro-could-forecast-for-eurusd-for-20102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Dollar checks its watch. Analysis as of 22.10.2020

Dollar checks its watch. Analysis as of 22.10.2020
The markets have been obsessed with fiscal stimulus recently, but the demand for European bonds may push EURUSD to the north if the ECB expands the bond-buying programme on 29 October. Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan.

Weekly fundamental forecast for dollar

In the financial markets, time is as important a factor as a price direction. Many traders would lose their money having chosen a wrong moment for making a trade, even though an asset’s price direction was predicted correctly. It is believed that fiscal stimulus will weaken the US dollar as stocks will grow, global risk appetite will increase, and demand for safe-haven assets will fall. The question is: will the economic support be provided before or after the elections? In the latter case, Donald Trump’s unwillingness to recognize voting results will support uncertainty and the greenback.
According to economic adviser Larry Kudlow, the stimulus talks are going really well, and both the economy and the market will profit if a deal is made within the next two weeks. At the same time, the Republicans don’t accept the prospective amount of $1.9 trillion. Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi believes, a deal will be signed in spite of the Republicans’ resistance, but admits it may happen only after the elections.
An extra support before the election would give Trump and the USD extra points. That’s why the dollar’s weakness and the S&P 500’s fall mean the markets are doubting that the Congress will approve of the Democrats’ package before Joe Biden takes the president’s chair.

US candidates rating


https://preview.redd.it/1r517r7wvmu51.jpg?width=603&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25fa487a75921d355516226df6c1990475abb116
Source: Nordea Markets.
Unlike fiscal stimulus, the US elections have already been scheduled. At the same time, the Blue Wave may raise the S&P 500 in the short term, and weaken the greenback, with a subsequent correction. On the other hand, the markets are overconfident about the Democrats’ victory, which shows itself in lower volatility at Forex. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was on the top of ratings, but it was Trump who opened a bottle of champaign. If he is re-elected unexpectedly, investors should consider selling the AUDUSD and buying the USDCNH amid a risk of US-China trade war resumption.

Forex volatility dynamics

https://preview.redd.it/h3hilz93xmu51.jpg?width=572&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8d443c759a9f07f722c990ec68eb136945183c42
Source: Bloomberg.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

The QE programme extension period is a question of time too. If that happens at the ECB’s meeting on 29 October, we can develop a trading strategy of buying the EURUSD as the quotes will fall amid weak statistics on Germany’s and the eurozone’s business activity, and fixing profits after the Executive Board’s meeting. Such a strategy is based on high demand for periphery countries’ bonds. The price for them will grow if QE gets extended. The problem is, the ECB may not take that step at the end of October.
I think that such factors as Joe Biden’s victory and a capital flow from the US debt market to Europe may raise EURUSD quotes despite the second pandemic wave and the eurozone’s economic weakness. Wait for data on Europe’s PMI to make a decision about medium-term trades. Until then, focus on intraday trading with narrow targets.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-checks-its-watch-analysis-as-of-22102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

USD/CNH - Breakdown of the US – China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) meeting in Washington.

USD/CNH - Breakdown of the US – China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) meeting in Washington. submitted by ImagesOfNetwork to ImagesOfWashington [link] [comments]

USD/CNH - Breakdown of the US – China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) meeting in Washington.

USD/CNH - Breakdown of the US – China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) meeting in Washington. submitted by ImagesOfNetwork to ImagesOfChina [link] [comments]

Market Update

Market Update


Chart of Comparison in Risk Assets over 12 Months

WHEN BIAS SHIFTS, CATALYSTS ONCE DOWNPLAYED STOKE FEAR

There is already evidence to show the speculators across region and asset class are far less responsive to any-and-all positive news while trouble - both insinuated and overt - drives the bears forward. This may seem a pedantic definition of the obvious, but the underlying bias of the speculative rank trumps the catalysts that more often commands the attention of traders looking for signals for new opportunities or to avoid cascading risk. With a bullish bias, 'good news' extends gains while the 'bad' is discounted or outright ignored. With a bearish setting, the opposite is true. Suddenly, the troubling clouds approaching from the horizon look genuinely daunting. And, the list of storms out on the radar is somewhat overwhelming. Earnings have proven a great example of how bias can shift fundamental event's influence on price, particularly the reaction to to Netflix, Google and Amazon. We are due more important corporate updates - Apple, Facebook, US Steel, GM, etc - in the week ahead. Further, there are some expectations that a slump in corporate buybacks is soon to pass. Should that not earn more buoyancy, it will dash another holdout source of strength. Far more systemic but too often overlooked, the US-China trade war and global monetary policy deserve much closer scrutiny. USDCNH is within reach of the offshore Renminbi's record low in its short history and the supposed 'red line' of 7.0000, and rhetoric for these two countries is showing no sign of improvement while growth and sentiment figures start to sputter. As for monetary policy, there is good reason to believe the world's largest central banks and their expansive stimulus programs have been a key pillar in promoting speculative enthusiasm. If confidence in their ability drops, there is little they can do already so exposed.

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submitted by AffectionateLeg1 to u/AffectionateLeg1 [link] [comments]

Can you trade forex without using margins?

I'm American and specifically asking about using FXCM or Oanda as an individual investor. Since a lot of people here use them, do you know if I can trade pairs without using margins, or at least with minimal leverage?
My reason for getting into forex is that I want to take a position against China and short the yuan, but I am not looking at this as a short term position, I am thinking I might hold it for 2-3 years. I don't want to rack up a bunch of interest/fees. I would rather just buy outright shares of USDCNY or USDCNH as if it were a stock, and if the yuan drops vs the dollar, the price goes up and I make money, or vice versa.
So am I crazy or is this possible?
submitted by pewpsprinkler to Forex [link] [comments]

Warning for SimpleFX swap rates

A while back I was trying some different trading sites just for fun, including SimpleFX as one of them. I landed a successful trade on SimpleFX, but the swap rate (the interest they charge overnight for holding) ate up all the profits really fast.
I did some more research, and found the swap rates SimpleFX charges are absolutely insanely high. Like 10-100x (or more!) compared with normal Forex brokers. So, basically it seems to be a noob trap for people who don't understand.
For example, right now their:
USDCNH pair has a -116.35 long swap rate! Their EURUSD pair swap rate is -5.88 (a normal forex broker would be about -.5 for this).
tl;dr SimpleFX swap fees are astronomical and if you trade here you probably don't understand it.
submitted by squarepush3r to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

USDCNH, EURUSD & GBPUSD - Ryan Littlestone : ForexFlow.live Análisis Diario de Forex USD/CNH, EUR/USD y AUD/USD. 19 de ... FX Price Action Setups in EURUSD, USDCNH and Gold Price Forex Live Trading October 13 Overnight Session EURUSD ... Forex Live Trading October 14 Early Morning Session EURUSD ... Forex Live Trading November 10 DAY Session EUR/USD XAU/USD ... Forex Live Trading October 14 Morning Session EURUSD ... USD CNH Forex Analysis this week ❤️ USDCNH Forex Analysis - September 23, 2019 - Supply and Demand Trading Forex News - NTVforex USD/CNH Price Analysis: Sidelined after bullish Doji reversal http://www.ntvfo

Get the latest market information about the USD/CNH pair including USD CNH Live Rate, News, US Dollar and Chinese Offshore Yuan Forecast and Analysis. Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com. USD/CNH. USD/CNH put in a double top on May 27 th and has been moving lower since and an orderly channel. The target for the double top is the height of the top to ... Verwenden Sie unsere Echtzeit 4 Stunde USD bis CNH Live-Charts, um den aktuellen und historischen USD vs. CNH Wechselkurs zu analysieren. USD/CNH United States Dollar / Chinese Yuan. BUY SELL. HIGH LOW CHANGE % CHANGE. TEST YOUR TRADING STRATEGIES. Get a demo account. Latest Research Brexit Excitement Sends GBP Bid, Ready for a Short-term Correction?: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP . Joe Perry November 10, 2020 11:07 AM Technicals are approaching levels for a possible reversal in some GBP pairs TAGS: Brexit, Forex, GBP. EU indices mixed TA ... Forex Assets; Analyzing the USD/CNH Forex Currency Pair. By. Reddy Shyam Shankar - 27 February, 2020. 185. 0. Facebook. Twitter. Pinterest. WhatsApp. Linkedin. ReddIt. Email. Print. Tumblr. Telegram. StumbleUpon. VK. Digg. LINE. Viber. Introduction. USDCNH is the tick symbol for the US Dollar versus the Chinese Yuan. This Asian currency pair is classified as an emerging currency pair. Here ... USD CNH (US Dollar / China Offshore Spot) ... Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter. Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Referred friends Coins My Support Tickets Help Center ... Current exchange rate US DOLLAR (USD) to China Offshore Spot (CNH) including currency converter, buying & selling rate and historical conversion chart. 新浪财经外汇兑换计算器为您提供今日usd对cnh汇率,usd兑换cnh(usdcnh)走势图,快速换算一usd兑换多少cnh. Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com. Copper vs USD/CNH. On a daily chart of Copper vs USD/CNH, one can get a better picture of how the 2 assets are related. Traders can look for possible reversals from the previous mentioned levels (copper = 3.318, USD/CNH = 6.500). In copper, traders can look for a 100% retracement of the wedge, which is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March lows to ... Forex USD / CNH . Typ:Forex. Gruppe:Exotic. USDCNH Live Chart Jetzt den Handel starten × CONGRATULATIONS! Demo deal was closed with a positive profit. Demo deal was closed with a negative profit. 0 In order to start real trading in the Forex market, you will need: Open Trading Account. Start trading in the Forex and CFD markets without risking your own money. Demokonto. Try Your Trading. 0 ...

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USDCNH, EURUSD & GBPUSD - Ryan Littlestone : ForexFlow.live

Saw supply level on 4hr chart as my favorite time frame for swing trading. I discussed also the long term or higher time frame direction of the pair. Also pointed out how the levels react to the ... Using my Live Methodology Evaluating Dollar Index Moves Versus EURUSD and GOLD. Live Buys using Trailing Stops. Proven over 20 Years experience. Article accompanying this webinar: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2019/03/21/fx-price-action-chart-setups-eurusd-usdcnh-gold-price-jstanley4... Nick Batsford, CEO of Core London is joined down the line by Ryan Littlestone, Trader & Analyst at ForexFlow.live Core Finance is part of Core London, a TV p... USD/CNH is struggling to gather upside momentum despite the bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart.В The pair is currently sidelined near 7.00 and trading well within Friday’s range of ... Using my Live Methodology Evaluating Dollar Index Moves Versus EURUSD and GOLD. Live Buys using Trailing Stops. Proven over 20 Years experience. This is a quick supply and demand Forex analysis update for the Chinese currency pair, USDCNH Chinese Yuan offshore. In our last update, we were expecting this Forex cross pair to retrace to a ... Este es un Plan de Trading diario de Forex donde se analizan los eventos del Calendario Económico y se evalúan algunos niveles técnicos para operar. FBS es u... Using my Live Methodology Evaluating Dollar Index Moves Versus EURUSD and GOLD. Live Buys using Trailing Stops. Proven over 20 Years experience. Using my Live Methodology Evaluating Dollar Index Moves Versus EUR/USD and GOLD. Live Buys using Trailing Stops. Proven over 20 Years experience. Feel free t...

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